The takeaway
ProShares UltraShort Gold shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+2.2%) and softest in March (−4.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 30% of years, averaging −3.6%, roughly 5.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraShort Gold's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+2.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−5.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraShort Gold’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraShort Gold’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in 7 of 10 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.2%) and median (+5.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 8.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.4 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: June and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−4.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, April, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −18.8% February in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, September strung together 7 straight positive years. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +2.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade