The takeaway
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in March (+11.2%) and softest in September (−10.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 57% of years, averaging +2.8%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 6 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+10.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−10.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Grocery Outlet Holding Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Grocery Outlet Holding Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in all 6 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+11.2%) and median (+9.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: March's returns vary by just 6.8% year to year, and even its worst March in 7 years lost only 2.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +10.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
Only June comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−10.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, February, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −28.1% February in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
March has now closed higher 6 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (March, +11.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −10.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +11.2% and closing higher in all 6 years on record since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade