The takeaway
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+12.1%) and softest in February (−8.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 50% of years, averaging −1.8%, roughly 4.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares's most dependable month has been March, higher in 6 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2020 | — | |||||||||||
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| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+19.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−8.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 60% of the time versus 67% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans March's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 6 of 9 Marches, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+12.1%) and median (+12.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 22.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +11.1 points above the index.
Only May comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−8.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in February, October, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −55.0% December in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +12.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −8.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +12.1% and closing higher in 6 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade