The takeaway
Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in August (+3.8%) and softest in October (−2.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +1.3%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF's most dependable month has been August, higher in 2 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, August has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
August looks the standout, up in 2 of 3 Augusts — yet the appeal is lumpy, leaning on the occasional blow-out year rather than dependable strength.
The headline flatters a touch — its +3.8% average sits well above the +1.6% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Augusts. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: March, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −10.7% April in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Hold it loosely, then: the August tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2023 its best month (August, +3.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −2.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +3.8% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade