The takeaway
Warrior Met Coal Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in January (+4.9%) and softest in June (−1.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +7.2%, about +5.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Warrior Met Coal Inc's most dependable month has been January, higher in 6 of 8 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Warrior Met Coal Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Warrior Met Coal Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 75% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in 6 of 8 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.9%) and median (+4.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 10.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
January anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, June, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −42.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (January, +4.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −1.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +4.9% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade