The takeaway
Hagerty Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+7.2%) and softest in March (−8.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −0.6%, roughly 2.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Hagerty Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 5 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+5.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−9.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Hagerty Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Hagerty Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in all 5 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+7.2%) and median (+7.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−8.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −28.0% March in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +7.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −8.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +7.2% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade