The takeaway
Direxion Daily S&P 500® High Beta Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in September (+6.2%) and softest in May (−18.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 17% of years, averaging −13.6%, roughly 15.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily S&P 500® High Beta Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been September, higher in 4 of 6 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+6.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−20.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily S&P 500® High Beta Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily S&P 500® High Beta Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 60% of the time versus 67% across the last 7 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward September — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 4 of 6 Septembers.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.2%) and median (+7.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 20.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +6.3 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 9 months that average a loss (−18.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, May, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −59.6% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, September's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 7-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (September, +6.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −18.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +6.2% and closing higher in 4 of 6 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −18.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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