The takeaway
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+2.9%) and softest in September (−7.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +6.0%, about +3.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd's most dependable month has been October, higher in 6 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−7.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Herbalife Nutrition Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Herbalife Nutrition Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward October — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Octobers.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.9%) and median (+4.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: October's returns vary by just 7.6% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.9 points on average.
Only January comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−7.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, August, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −29.1% February in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +2.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −7.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +2.9% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade