The takeaway
Hallador Energy Company shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+7.7%) and softest in December (+0.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Hallador Energy Company's most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+12.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in January (−5.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Hallador Energy Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Hallador Energy Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: October, up in 8 of 10 Octobers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.7%) and median (+6.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 10.7% spread), and even its worst October in 10 years lost only 10.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May and September have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, December is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+0.6%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in January, August, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −42.0% January in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +7.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, +0.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +7.7% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.6%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade