The takeaway
Robinhood Markets Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+6.8%) and softest in December (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +6.8%, about +4.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Robinhood Markets Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 5 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+15.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−10.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Robinhood Markets Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Robinhood Markets Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 4 of 5 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.8%) and median (+10.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 10.4% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-October window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −27.4% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +6.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +6.8% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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