The takeaway
VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in December (+1.2%) and softest in March (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 90% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF's most dependable month has been December, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. December stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Decembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.2%) and median (+1.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.7% spread), and even its worst December in 10 years lost only 0.0% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, December is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages December only about 58% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — December–February forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −14.7% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, December strung together 8 straight positive years. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: December aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (December), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — December is the firmest (+1.2%) and March the softest (−1.0%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
December has been the strongest, averaging +1.2% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade