The takeaway
Innventure, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in August (+5.7%) and softest in June (−2.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 50% of years, averaging −0.6%, roughly 2.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Innventure, Inc.'s most dependable month has been August, higher in 3 of 4 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+12.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−17.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Innventure, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Innventure, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, August has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: August, up in 3 of 4 Augusts while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +5.7% average sits well above the +0.4% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Augusts. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 9.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February, March, and December have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−2.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −53.4% October in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (August, +5.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −2.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +5.7% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade