The takeaway
Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+2.6%) and softest in September (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 86% of years, averaging +2.6% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | |||||||||||
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−1.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 6 of 7 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.6%) and median (+3.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.1% spread), and even its worst July in 8 years lost only 0.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −17.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
A long streak recently broke — July had risen 6 years straight before a −0.1% reading in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +2.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.6% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade