The takeaway
Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF New shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in April (+2.2%) and softest in September (−1.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 57% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 2.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF New's most dependable month has been April, higher in 5 of 6 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 43% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+0.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF New’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF New’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in 5 of 6 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.2%) and median (+1.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
April anchors a run, too: the February-through-June window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and October.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (April, +2.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade