The takeaway
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+6.0%) and softest in August (−2.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 9 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +6.0% average sits well above the +3.6% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−2.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, February, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −79.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +6.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −2.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.0% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade