The takeaway
JAKKS Pacific Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+12.1%) and softest in March (−13.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +4.6%, about +2.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
JAKKS Pacific Inc's most dependable month has been April, higher in 6 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+10.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−14.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is JAKKS Pacific Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating JAKKS Pacific Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
April looks the standout, up in 6 of 10 Aprils — yet the appeal is lumpy, leaning on the occasional blow-out year rather than dependable strength.
The headline flatters a touch — its +12.1% average sits well above the +2.6% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Aprils. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 36.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +10.5 points above the index.
A few other months pull their weight: June, July, and August have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−13.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −47.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Hold it loosely, then: the April tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +12.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −13.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +12.1% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −13.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade