The takeaway
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+4.2%) and softest in March (−3.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 30% of years, averaging −1.1%, roughly 3.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Kaiser Aluminum Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 8 of 10 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+4.2%) and median (+5.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−3.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, July, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −29.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +4.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −3.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.2% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade