The takeaway
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in April (+4.3%) and softest in June (−2.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 20% of years, averaging −0.7%, roughly 2.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 4 of 5 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−6.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. April stands out, higher in 4 of 5 Aprils, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.3%) and median (+5.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — February–May forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and June.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (April, +4.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −2.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.3% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade