The takeaway
SPDR Kensho New Economies Composite shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+4.0%) and softest in April (−0.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 86% of years, averaging +4.0%, about +1.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
SPDR Kensho New Economies Composite's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 7 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is SPDR Kensho New Economies Composite’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating SPDR Kensho New Economies Composite’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 6 of 7 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.0%) and median (+5.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.2% spread), and even its worst July in 8 years lost only 4.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June, October, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −18.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +4.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −0.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.0% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade