The takeaway
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+10.3%) and softest in October (−7.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+9.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−9.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward November — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Novembers.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+10.3%) and median (+10.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: November's returns vary by just 15.6% year to year, and even its worst November in 10 years lost only 7.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.0 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−7.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, May, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −53.8% January in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +10.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −7.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +10.3% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade