The takeaway
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+4.7%) and softest in September (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 78% of years, averaging +4.7%, about +2.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 9 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+2.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 7 of 9 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+4.7%) runs well ahead of the median (+2.3%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 9.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — August and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −24.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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