The takeaway
Karat Packaging Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in May (+9.3%) and softest in September (−4.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +5.7%, about +3.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Karat Packaging Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 5 of 5 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+8.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−4.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Karat Packaging Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Karat Packaging Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in all 5 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +9.3% average sits well above the +5.8% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Mays. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 8.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−4.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, April, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −17.4% January in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
May has now closed higher 5 years running.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (May, +9.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +9.3% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade