The takeaway
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in August (+11.5%) and softest in October (−1.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +0.1%, roughly 2.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's most dependable month has been August, higher in 5 of 5 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | |||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+11.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: August, up in all 5 Augusts while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +11.5% average sits well above the +6.8% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Augusts. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 10.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +11.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February, May, and June have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −41.4% February in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
August has now closed higher 5 years running.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (August, +11.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +11.5% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade