The takeaway
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+7.1%) and softest in November (−15.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 40% of years, averaging −4.0%, roughly 6.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares's most dependable month has been March, higher in 8 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+6.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−17.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in 8 of 10 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.1%) and median (+9.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 14.3% spread), and even its worst March in 10 years lost only 18.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February and October have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−15.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −57.5% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +7.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −15.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +7.1% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −15.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade