The takeaway
First Trust Long Duration Opportunities ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in November (+2.3%) and softest in October (−1.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 71% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Long Duration Opportunities ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 7 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Long Duration Opportunities ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Long Duration Opportunities ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 86% across the last 7 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 6 of 7 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.3%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and December.
November has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (November, +2.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.3% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade