The takeaway
Eli Lilly and Company shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+5.2%) and softest in July (−0.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −0.3%, roughly 2.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Eli Lilly and Company's most dependable month has been June, higher in 9 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−2.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Eli Lilly and Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Eli Lilly and Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.2%) and median (+4.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.2% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — January–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, July is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July and October. Its roughest month on record was a −12.0% July in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
June has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +5.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −0.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +5.2% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade