The takeaway
Main Street Capital Corporation shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+4.8%) and softest in March (−3.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 90% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Main Street Capital Corporation's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Main Street Capital Corporation’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Main Street Capital Corporation’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
The headline flatters a touch — its +4.8% average sits well above the +3.0% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Novembers. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 3.9% spread), and even its worst November in 10 years lost only 0.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−3.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −46.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 6 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +4.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −3.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.8% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade