The takeaway
MediaAlpha Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in October (+11.0%) and softest in November (−5.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +3.3%, about +1.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
MediaAlpha Inc.'s most dependable month has been October, higher in 4 of 6 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+18.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−12.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is MediaAlpha Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MediaAlpha Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 60% of the time versus 67% across the last 6 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The strength here is spread across the year rather than banked in one month: 6 of its 12 months have closed higher more often than not, October (up in 4 of 6 Octobers) edging a crowded field.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+11.0%) and median (+10.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 12.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +9.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, March, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−5.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in August, April, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −51.6% April in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 6-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (October, +11.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −5.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +11.0% and closing higher in 4 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade