The takeaway
MasterBrand Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in January (+11.2%) and softest in October (−4.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +8.6%, about +6.5 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
MasterBrand Inc.'s most dependable month has been January, higher in 2 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+11.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−10.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is MasterBrand Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MasterBrand Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, January has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward January — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 2 of 3 Januaries.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+11.2%) and median (+18.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 11.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +11.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, April, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −24.5% December in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (January, +11.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −4.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +11.2% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade