The takeaway
Merchants Bancorp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+8.3%) and softest in April (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Merchants Bancorp's most dependable month has been November, higher in 9 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Merchants Bancorp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Merchants Bancorp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 9 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+8.3%) and median (+7.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: November's returns vary by just 5.4% year to year, and even its worst November in 9 years lost only 0.0% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the October-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −19.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 9 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +8.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +8.3% and closing higher in all 9 years on record since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade