The takeaway
MCBC Holdings Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+5.6%) and softest in September (−0.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
MCBC Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been February, higher in 7 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+5.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is MCBC Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MCBC Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — February. It has closed higher in 7 of 10 Februaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.6%) and median (+7.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: February's returns vary by just 6.9% year to year, and even its worst February in 10 years lost only 6.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.9 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, August, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −54.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +5.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −0.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +5.6% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade