The takeaway
Medpace Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+7.3%) and softest in February (−2.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +14.6%, about +12.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Medpace Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 9 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+12.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−2.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Medpace Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Medpace Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and June is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 9 Junes, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical June brings +4.8%, a shade under the +7.3% average. No month is steadier: June's returns vary by just 6.6% year to year, and even its worst June in 10 years lost only 0.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — June has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
June anchors a run, too: the June-through-August window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −22.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
June has now closed higher 9 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +7.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +7.3% and closing higher in all 9 years on record since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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