The takeaway
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+3.0%) and softest in December (−4.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +3.0%, about +0.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 4 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−5.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in all 4 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.0%) and median (+2.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 2.4% year to year, and even its worst July in 5 years lost only 0.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March, May, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−4.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −19.6% September in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +3.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −4.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.0% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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