The takeaway
MFA Financial Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+4.8%) and softest in October (+1.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +3.4%, about +1.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
MFA Financial Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 9 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is MFA Financial Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MFA Financial Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — June. It has closed higher in 9 of 10 Junes, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical June brings +3.4%, a shade under the +4.8% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 12.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — June has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in June — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
June anchors a run, too: the June-through-August window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, October is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+1.1%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −77.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in June, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +4.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, +1.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +4.8% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+1.1%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade