The takeaway
MFS Active Value ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in January (+4.5%) and softest in April (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 0% of years, averaging −1.7%, roughly 3.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
MFS Active Value ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 1 of 1 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is MFS Active Value ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MFS Active Value ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent January history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — January. It has closed higher in all 1 Januaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.5%) and median (+4.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: January's returns vary by just 0.0% year to year, and even its worst January in 2 years lost only 4.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, May, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, July, and October.
For a fund this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (January, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade