The takeaway
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp shows a slight seasonal lean over 9 years of data — strongest in June (+2.1%) and softest in April (+5.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 56% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp's most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+4.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−3.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 8 of 9 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.1%) and median (+3.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, May, and August have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+5.6%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −47.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — June is the firmest (+2.1%) and April the softest (+5.6%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
June has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+5.6%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade