The takeaway
First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in July (+5.3%) and softest in February (+0.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +5.3%, about +3.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 3 of 3 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 67% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+4.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−0.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in all 3 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.3%) and median (+5.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The lift is near-universal — strength runs through almost every month of the year, not one window. At the other end of the calendar, February is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+0.5%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2022 its best month (July, +5.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, +0.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +5.3% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.5%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade