The takeaway
Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 2 years of data — strongest in October (+0.4%) and softest in September (+0.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF's most dependable month has been October, higher in 2 of 2 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 100% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+0.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent October history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. October stands out, higher in all 2 Octobers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+0.4%) and median (+0.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
The lift is near-universal — strength runs through almost every month of the year, not one window. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and April.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — October is the firmest (+0.4%) and September the softest (+0.2%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
October has been the strongest, averaging +0.4% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.2%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade