The takeaway
Altria Group shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+3.8%) and softest in September (−3.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.0%, roughly 1.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Altria Group's most dependable month has been March, higher in 7 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+2.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−3.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Altria Group’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Altria Group’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and March is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Marches, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.8%) and median (+2.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
March anchors a run, too: the February-through-May window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, April, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −21.3% June in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +3.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +3.8% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade