The takeaway
The Mosaic Company shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+4.9%) and softest in March (−2.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +4.9%, about +2.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
The Mosaic Company's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+2.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−4.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is The Mosaic Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating The Mosaic Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 7 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+4.9%) and median (+4.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.6% spread), and even its worst July in 10 years lost only 2.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.8 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–July forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, March, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −38.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +4.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −2.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.9% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade