The takeaway
Meridian Bank shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+10.4%) and softest in April (−4.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Meridian Bank's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 9 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+8.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Meridian Bank’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Meridian Bank’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 9 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+10.4%) and median (+8.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 10.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the October-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −31.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 7 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +10.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −4.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +10.4% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade