The takeaway
Mercury Systems Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+6.0%) and softest in October (−2.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +6.0%, about +3.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Mercury Systems Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−3.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Mercury Systems Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Mercury Systems Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+6.0%) and median (+4.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 9.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.8 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — April–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, April, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −33.1% April in 2018 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +6.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −2.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +6.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade