The takeaway
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in March (+5.8%) and softest in July (−3.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 0% of years, averaging −3.5%, roughly 5.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's most dependable month has been March, higher in 2 of 2 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+4.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−5.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent March history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — March. It has closed higher in all 2 Marches, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.8%) and median (+5.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — March has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in March — the typical stock clears it just 56% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, October, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−3.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, April, and September.
For a stock this dependable in March, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (March, +5.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −3.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +5.8% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade