The takeaway
Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 1.5X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in May (+12.4%) and softest in August (−4.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 33% of years, averaging −0.9%, roughly 3.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 1.5X Shares's most dependable month has been May, higher in 3 of 3 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+11.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−5.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 1.5X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 1.5X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, May has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in all 3 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+12.4%) and median (+11.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.7% spread), and even its worst May in 4 years lost only 9.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +11.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−4.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, August, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −17.2% July in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (May, +12.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −4.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +12.4% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade