The takeaway
YieldMax™ MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in March (+36.1%) and softest in December (−10.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +9.0%, about +6.9 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
YieldMax™ MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF's most dependable month has been March, higher in 2 of 2 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+35.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−12.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is YieldMax™ MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating YieldMax™ MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent March history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in all 2 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+36.1%) and median (+36.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 25.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +35.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−10.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, August, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −29.7% November in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (March, +36.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −10.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +36.1% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade