The takeaway
Simplify MBS ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 3 years of data — strongest in November (+1.2%) and softest in April (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify MBS ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+0.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify MBS ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify MBS ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 3 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.2%) and median (+1.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the November-through-January window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and November.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — November is the firmest (+1.2%) and April the softest (−0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
November has been the strongest, averaging +1.2% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade