The takeaway
nCino Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in July (+0.6%) and softest in February (−4.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 83% of years, averaging +0.6%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
nCino Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 6 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−13.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is nCino Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating nCino Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 5 of 6 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+0.6%) and median (+2.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 6.8% year to year. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-July window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−4.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, February, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −19.5% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (July, +0.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −4.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +0.6% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade