The takeaway
Nexa Resources SA shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in December (+13.1%) and softest in February (−3.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 38% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nexa Resources SA's most dependable month has been December, higher in 8 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+12.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−5.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nexa Resources SA’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nexa Resources SA’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 100% of the time versus 89% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — December. It has closed higher in 8 of 9 Decembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+13.1%) and median (+13.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: December's returns vary by just 8.8% year to year, and even its worst December in 9 years lost only 3.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +12.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March and October have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−3.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, June, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −48.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
December has now closed higher 7 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Decembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (December, +13.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −3.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +13.1% and closing higher in 8 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade