The takeaway
Sprott Nickel Miners ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in September (+7.8%) and softest in October (−7.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 0% of years, averaging −3.6%, roughly 5.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Sprott Nickel Miners ETF's most dependable month has been September, higher in 2 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+8.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−8.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Sprott Nickel Miners ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Sprott Nickel Miners ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, September has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The strength here is spread across the year rather than banked in one month: 6 of its 12 months have closed higher more often than not, September (up in 2 of 3 Septembers) edging a crowded field.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+7.8%) and median (+13.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 9.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +8.0 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March, April, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−7.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, January, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −14.5% June in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (September, +7.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −7.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +7.8% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade