The takeaway
Nio Inc Class A ADR shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+22.3%) and softest in March (−17.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 57% of years, averaging +22.3%, about +20.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nio Inc Class A ADR's most dependable month has been July, higher in 4 of 7 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 14% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+20.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−18.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nio Inc Class A ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nio Inc Class A ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 40% of the time versus 57% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward July — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 4 of 7 Julys.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+22.3%) and median (+33.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 26.0% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +20.1 points on average.
At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−17.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −49.3% March in 2019 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +22.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −17.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +22.3% and closing higher in 4 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −17.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade